Libertarian Party’s Impending Doom

Bob Barr, libertarian candidate for president, reiterated today his confidence that if left alone, the market would “correct” itself. Maybe Barr can afford to withstand a “correction,” but I’m betting your average libertarian can’t. And thus, I expect the party to suffer severely in the coming months as our recession teeters dangerously close to full-blown depression.

Demand (market) economies have proven themselves more efficient, reliable and productive than command (staunch communist) economies time and again. Setting aside the obvious negative externalities of greed, consumerism, pollution, etc., no system of production and distribution better satisfies our needs and wants. So it’s natural for some to extohl the virtues of free enterprise, and even for some to make such a fetish out of it as to commit themselves to the complete marketization of… everything. This breed of libertarian supports the free market because it promotes the good of themselves, their family or their country.

But hardcore libertarians proclaim 100% property rights at all costs. For them, the minimalist state is a moral requirement, apart from the conditions on the ground—apart from its real-world effects. Their allegiance to the market is compatible with widespread poverty or general affluence or stark inequalities or relative equality—they have no ideologically consistent way to empower the state to bring about one outcome or the other. The almighty market prevails, and wherever the chips fall, we must accept them.

When it’s you and yours on the brink of homelessness, not just those lazy bums you used to scoff at, all that “hard work is always rewarded in America” talk quiets, and those evil redistributive liberals look more and more appealing.

In the real world, my guess is that most fall into the former camp. I suspect that most run of the mill self-proclaimed voting libertarians are committed to the party just long as they’re enjoying moderate economic success, or at least as long as they foresee real or imagined opportunities to ascend. For sure, some are attracted to the party’s moral permissiveness (pro-gun, gay-tolerant, anti-censorship, etc.). But I think it’s fair to say that most are in it for the economics.

Like many (if not most) voters, libertarians drift towards whichever party seems to be able to best promote their personal interests. And when you’re doing well, ultra-low taxes sound pretty darn good. Hence, given the affluence of the 90s and the relatively stable quality of life in the 00s, we should expect the party’s current popularity (as popularity goes for 3rd parties).

But if I’m correct, as the economy worsens (and with a crumbling real estate market and ever-increasing energy costs, it will worsen), party loyalists will begin to wain. When it’s you and yours on the brink of homelessness, not just those lazy bums you used to scoff at, all that “hard work is always rewarded in America” talk quiets, and those evil redistributive liberals look more and more appealing.

So I predict a significant decrease in both party influence and membership. Bob Barr is going to find it harder and harder to get common Americans to drink his capitalist kool-aid. And in fact, though I think this would be an overreaction, depending on how bad things get, we just might see a renewed interest in American communism.

—Matt Deaton—